The 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Illinois.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016 defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk, and is seeking re-election to a second term against former U.S. House of Representatives candidate Kathy Salvi, the Republican nominee. Should Duckworth win re-election, she would become the first woman ever to be re-elected for a second term in the state’s history. This would also be the first time since 1986, that a class 3 Illinois senator would be re-elected to a successive six-year term. This is also the first Illinois Senate election where both major party candidates are female.

Background

This senate seat was unfavorable to incumbents over the past several decades. No person elected to this seat was re-elected since Alan J. Dixon in 1986. Dixon sought re-election in 1992 for a third term in office, but lost in the Democratic primary to Carol Moseley Braun, when she was defeated for re-election in 1998 by her Republican challenger Peter Fitzgerald. He retired in 2004 and his seat was won by Democrat Barack Obama, who resigned in 2008 upon his election as the President of the United States. His successor was Roland Burris, who was appointed by then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich to fill the vacancy. However, in 2010, the seat changed parties for the fourth time in a row, with Republican Mark Kirk elected that year to become Burris’s successor, taking office in November to fill the final weeks of Obama’s unfinished senate term in the 111th Congress. Kirk was then defeated himself in 2016 by then-U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[16][17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tammy Duckworth (incumbent) 856,720 100.0%
Total votes856,720 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Tim Arview, insurance agent[25][21]
  • Maryann Mahlen[23]
  • Allison Salinas, activist[26]

Declined

Endorsements

Bobby Piton
Individuals
Kathy Salvi
State legislators
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Casey
Chlebek
Matthew
Dubiel
Peggy
Hubbard
Bobby
Piton
Kathy
Salvi
Jimmy Lee
Tillman
Anthony
Williams
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsJune 6–13, 2022June 15, 20223.5%5.5%14.0%4.0%12.5%1.5%2.0%57.0%Hubbard +1.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Casey
Chlebek
Matthew
Dubiel
Peggy
Hubbard
Maryann
Mahlen
Bobby
Piton
Kathy
Salvi
Jimmy Lee
Tillman
Anthony
Williams
Undecided
Ogden & Fry (R)June 24, 2022518 (LV)± 4.4%1%6%11%2%3%20%2%0%53%
The Trafalgar Group (R)June 10–13, 20221,075 (LV)± 2.9%6%4%18%6%15%2%1%49%
Ogden & Fry (R)June 11–12, 2022662 (LV)± 3.9%1%4%9%2%4%17%1%1%62%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 6–7, 2022677 (LV)± 3.8%1%7%10%2%10%1%3%66%
Emerson CollegeMay 6–8, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%4%4%7%6%5%1%1%72%

Results

Results by county

Map legend
  •   Salvi—50–60%
  •   Salvi—40–50%
  •   Salvi—<40%
  •   Hubbard—<40%
  •   Hubbard—40–50%
  •   Hubbard—50–60%
  •   Dubiel—<40%
Republican primary results[16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kathy Salvi 216,007 30.23%
RepublicanPeggy Hubbard177,18024.79%
RepublicanMatthew “Matt” Dubiel90,53812.67%
RepublicanCasey Chlebek76,21310.66%
RepublicanRobert “Bobby” Piton65,4619.16%
RepublicanAnthony W. Williams52,8907.40%
RepublicanJimmy Lee Tillman II36,3425.09%
Total votes714,631 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[51]Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[52]Solid DApril 1, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[53]Safe DMarch 1, 2022
Politico[54]Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP[55]Safe DJuly 31, 2022
Fox News[56]Solid DMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[57]Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538[58]Solid DJune 30, 2022
The Economist[59]Safe DSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Kathy Salvi (R)
State legislators
Local officials
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Kathy
Salvi (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeSeptember 21–23, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%31%4%[c]16%
Victory Geek (D)August 25–28, 2022512 (LV)± 4.3%58%35%7%
Victory Research (R)July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%43%34%2%[d]20%
Hypothetical polling
Tammy Duckworth vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Victory Research (R)July 17–19, 20221,208 (LV)± 2.8%44%36%20%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Illinois
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticTammy Duckworth (incumbent)
RepublicanKathy Salvi
LibertarianBill Redpath
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ “Someone else” with 4%
  4. ^ Redpath with 2%

References

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  71. ^ “Sangamon County GOP Endorsements”. www.sangamonrepublicans.com. Retrieved May 26, 2022.
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External links

Official campaign websites